Griffith Park fire - Aries & Libra ingress examples

Q&A and discussion on Sidereal Solar & Lunar Ingresses, and transits & quotidian progressions of solar ingress.
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Jim Eshelman
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Griffith Park fire - Aries & Libra ingress examples

Post by Jim Eshelman » Thu May 11, 2017 6:28 pm

A rare, striking example of the occasional importance of the Aries and Libra ingresses just presented itself through the Griffith Park fire, October 3, 1933, 2:15 PM (about), in Griffith Park, Los Angeles (specifically 34N09, 118W18).

Forty-seven acres burned, 29 people died, and another 150 people were injured in the deadliest fire in Los Angeles history. It started shortly after 2:00 PM on an October afternoon in the city’s spacious Griffith Park, where thousands of workers were clearing dry brush. When the fire department arrived a few minutes later, at 2:26 PM, these thousands of civilians already were fighting the fire, impeding fire department access. Then, about 3:00 PM, the wind shifted, propelling the fire in a new direction and causing most of the deaths and injuries. (All the deaths were civilians fighting the fire.) By sunset (around 5:30 PM), they had contained the blaze.

Sun was in Virgo and Moon in Pisces. The primary ingresses were the Capsolar and Cansolar, and the Caplunar, by normal rules. Though the Capsolar was dormant, the Cansolar and Caplunar were not, so there was no reason (under normal procedure) to consult the Aries of Libra ingresses of either Sun or Moon.

However, in this case... well, I'm not sure I've seen so many Mars instances on angles for a single event. Look at this:

ARISOLAR
7°05' Leo - Mars
7°12' Sco - Asc

LIBSOLAR
138°25' - Mars RA
140°15' - EP RA
------------------------
2°15' Sco - t. Mars
2°57' Leo - Asc

AqiQ
7°05' Leo - s. Mars
8°21' Aqu - p. MC

LibQ
21°44' Can - s. Mars
22°16' Can - p. Mars
22°35' Can - p. Asc

This is in addition to transiting Mars conjoining Capsolar EP (0°18') at the time of the fire.

Thought I'd share the very interesting example. Sometimes (not often, but sometimes) it shakes out like this.
Jim Eshelman
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Re: Griffith Park fire = Aries & Libra ingress examples

Post by Jim Eshelman » Thu May 11, 2017 6:29 pm

SteveS wrote:Mars indeed! Maybe the lesson here: when we see a pronounced planetary signatures with the Quarter Ingresses--pay close attention.
Maybe... I haven't yet been able to quantify particular circumstances for this.

Consider the following: with the current working set of 283 events.

Let's take, as a measurement of a really clear, decisive message in an ingress, a score of +2 or higher. (+1, or "fits the event on balance," could be equivocal).

I have 85 events where the Arisolar is +2 or+3. For these events, non-dormant AriQ is +1 or higher 74% of the time, and transits to the Arisolar are +1 or higher 73% of the time. These are really low scores, we usually see reliable techniques in the high 80s or into the 90s.

Contrast this when the Arisolar has a negative score - the Arisolar itself gives a message that is contrary to the event. I have 33 examples of this. The AriQ of these is +1 or better 66^ of the time, and Arisolar transits 44% of the time. Admittedly these are worse than the 74% and 73% above, but neither set of figures inspires confidence.

Let's repeat with the Libsolar: I have 115 events where the Libsolar is +2 or better. Of these, the LibQ is +1 or higher 73% of the time, and transits to the Libsolar 69% of the time. Switch to those cases where the Libsolar has a negative score (28 cases): the LibQ is positive 65% of the time and the Libsolar transits 53%. Again, the second set is lower (but the LibQ not by much), and none of them inspire confidence in relying on the technique.


This raises the broader question of whether the "parent" ingress' activity is related in any fashion to how its quotidians and transits work. I've seen many cases of a boring or even wrong Capsolar that had extraordinary quotidians and transits... but let's look at this systematically. I have 137 cases where the Capsolar is at least +2. For these, the CapQ (which we know to be a viable, major technique) is +1 or higher 88% of the time, and transits to Capsolar 91% of the time when they occur.

Contrast this to cases where the Capsolar is bad - it has a negative score - I only have 11 cases (it's hard to find bad Capsolars for major events). Of these 11 cases, the CapQ is +1 or higher 8 times out of 10 (80%, which is lower) and Capsolar transits 6 times out of 6 (100%, which is higher). They average about 90%, same as when the Capsolar is good.

Two conclusions seem to come from this. One is that the quality of the ingress doesn't determine the quality of its transits and quotidians - the Capsolar gets ~90% on both whether the Capsolar is any good. The second is that we just can't rely on the Arisolar and Libsolar quotidians and transits, even though they occasionally produce extraordinary results - at their best, they don't enter the range of trustworthy techniques.

(Hopefully by the end of the day I'll have a full statistical work-up on all four solar and lunar ingresses and on the quotidians and transits to all four solar ingresses. I got partway through it yesterday. Obviously, if I learn anything new, you guys will be the first to know.)
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Re: Griffith Park fire = Aries & Libra ingress examples

Post by Jim Eshelman » Thu May 11, 2017 6:29 pm

Jupiter Sets At Dawn wrote:Would you like another event? I forgot to put this into the October stuff thread. It was a deadly housefire.

October 20, 2016, 12:05 AM (40.901252, -96.069810) The house was technically in Weeping Water, NE, but actually 6 miles NE, close to the village of Nehawka.

Alarm came into 911 at 12:05 AM, saying there was smoke and people inside, but the caller hadn't been able to wake anyone. When fire department arrived, there were flames coming from every window. Two more fire departments arrived and the walls fell in and the roof came down. All that was left was the chimney. It took two days to cool enough for the fire investigators to be sure it began with embers from the fireplace.

The Speer family, mother, father and four girls, 2, 5, 8 and 11 had died of smoke inhalation. They had recently moved into the house, and were buried from their church in Bellevue, NE basically shutting down the town, on the 25th at sunset. The 31st, Halloween, hundreds of homes throughout Omaha, Bellevue and Weeping Water area changed out their porch lights for a "Pink Out" to honor the children.

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