Donald Trump

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Re: Donald Trump

Post by SteveS » Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:56 am

Jim wrote:
Schumer has the actual authority to schedule it; but McConnell still has political clout...
I am confused. Is the Senate actual count 50 Reps 48 Dems and 2 Independents (who sides with the Dems), which I guess still gives Mitch blocking power to introduce bills to the Senate floor????

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Re: Donald Trump

Post by Jim Eshelman » Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:11 am

SteveS wrote:
Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:56 am
Jim wrote:
Schumer has the actual authority to schedule it; but McConnell still has political clout...
I am confused. Is the Senate actual count 50 Reps 48 Dems and 2 Independents (who sides with the Dems), which I guess still gives Mitch blocking power to introduce bills to the Senate floor????
There are a whole lot of ways to block something from coming to the floor. In fact, among the obscure rules in the Senate, there are some (unclear to me) situations where any single Senator can block a matter from coming to a vote.

But the main issue here is the political dance. If all Democrats vote together, they will win any vote that isn't tied up by filibuster. The filibuster is the greatest tool the Republicans now have: Under the Senate's rules allowing extensive deliberation on a topic, any Senator, once he or she is called on and has the floor, can hold the floor for an unlimited amount of time provided they don't stop or sit down. This can go on for days and tie everything up. How do you beat a filibuster? There is a higher priority parliamentary action, which is a vote to end debate; but the vote to end debate requires 60 votes.

Therefore, to overcome the long stalling power of a filibuster, it takes 60 votes, not 50. Republicans can, therefore, halt most things from coming to a vote.

There are exceptions, though. I think approval of presidential appointments is exempt from filibuster, so the Cabinet appointments can at least come to a vote. But the relief bill can't come to a vote unless at least 10 Republicans vote to make it happen, and many things concerning the impeachment trial are also subject to this (aside from the fact that removal from office will require 2/3 of the Senators present).

This is aside from the fact that McConnell has enormous political power, i.e., the ability to compel loyalty and have people side with him. This isn't a parliamentary power, it's just pure political power. He still heads his party in the Senate. His leadership position is under attack by Trump loyalists, though, who have particularly focused on his statement that Trump committed impeachable acts and that he MIGHT vote to remove. One block of Republicans in the Senate have state candidly that if McConnell votes to remove Trump, they will see that he is removed as party leader. OTOH many observers think that McConnell's clout is so strong that if he says he's voting to remove, at least another 16 Republican Senators will go along with him - removing Trump's rights to run for office and marking history with a full Republican rebuke of Trump, letting the party distance itself from him going forward.

In other words: McConnell is sitting at an ongoing poker game with the second highest pile of chips and a LOT of opportunities to bargain.
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Re: Donald Trump

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:19 am

Independents who vote with the Democrats and are given committee positions by Democrats also vote for the Democratic leadership and count as not-Republicans, ie Democrats when counting up who has the majority.

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Re: Donald Trump

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:25 am

The majority party can vote at the beginning of a session, to block fillibusters, which is what the Republicans did to the Democrats the last two sessions (4 years)

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Re: Donald Trump

Post by SteveS » Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:04 pm

JSAD wrote:
Independents who vote with the Democrats and are given committee positions by Democrats also vote for the Democratic leadership and count as not-Republicans, ie Democrats when counting up who has the majority.
So, if I understand, the 2 Independents generally will always vote with the Dems, actually making the senate 50-50, but with Harris casting possible "break the tie" stuff for floor votes, the majority now exists with the Dems on getting Bills to the floor for a vote. This still means at least 10 Rep senators would have to vote with the 50 Dem senators to officially pass a Bill into law, provided there was no Veto from the Prez. Correct?

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Re: Donald Trump

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:54 pm

No, not correct. A bill can pass on 51 votes. They need 60 if the president vetos or to stop a fillibuster.

Steve, read this: http://nacns.org/wp-content/uploads/201 ... ics101.pdf and https://guides.library.pdx.edu/c.php?g=271192&p=1810844
Those should answer most of these civics questions for you without taking up space on Jim's server for non-astrological stuff.

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Re: Donald Trump

Post by SteveS » Fri Jan 22, 2021 3:45 pm

Thanks JSAD.

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Re: Donald Trump

Post by Jim Eshelman » Fri Jan 22, 2021 3:58 pm

Deal reached between the two Senate leaders to delay Trump's trial two weeks, starting around February 8. That's a day after his new SLR with Neptune to Sun-Moon on angles.

In mundane charts, the Bridge is Neptune-Jupiter-Mars and the forecast already includes, "court or other legal issues stir raging emotions." The February 9 Caplunar forecasts "in most respects... a good, positive, upbeat period" with "celebrations, victories, festivities, happiness, love, and world-witnessed weddings and births," which I doubt is a reference to the trial. I'm sure my forecast of political polarization will be right, as will the forecast that, "Deals are struck, tradeoffs of what costs vs. gains..."
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Re: Donald Trump

Post by SteveS » Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:09 am

Jim, your understand political processes much better than me. On a scale of 1-10, with the higher number being more likely, what number do you allow Trump will be in Senate trial.

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Re: Donald Trump

Post by Jim Eshelman » Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:19 am

SteveS wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:09 am
Jim, your understand political processes much better than me. On a scale of 1-10, with the higher number being more likely, what number do you allow Trump will be in Senate trial.
Do you mean, will he be physically present? Quite low. I don't think he showed up last time. Clinton never showed up IIRC. He doesn't have to be there.

However, there is SOME chance since he likes an audience. Depending on when the trial occurs, it might be under one of the lunar returns playing up his need for an audience. Anybody around him with any sense would advise against this, but he doesn't have as many people around him, especially those who would advise against this. If he has any sense, he'll stay in Florida and get in front of the cameras a lot from his front lawn.

So... 2 or 3 chances out of 10.
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Re: Donald Trump

Post by SteveS » Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:36 am

Thanks Jim.

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Re: Sidereal Lunar Return 2/7/21

Post by Jim Eshelman » Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:30 am

Jim Eshelman wrote:
Thu Jan 21, 2021 3:23 pm
Effective Feb 6 to Mar 6. After two weeks of probable relaxation, Donald Trump is back in the spotlight and breaks forth with big news - if he is in or around Washington. Natal Sun-Moon opposition is across the Eastpoint axis (partile) with transiting Neptune on IC (2°). Neptune squares his Moon.

What can thrive under this is Trump the TV character, the performer, the entertainer. With the great strength of his luminaries, this probably will prevail. However, this is also an example of the slow psyche-eroding encroachment of Neptune to aspect his luminaries. Neptune to Moon enhances his vulnerabilities... I believe he will be solidly in the headlines because of the 0°00' Sun-Mercury mundane conjunction in Washington...
Yesterday the defense team rested their case. Today, the Senate was expected to vote acquittal. However, this morning a surprise vote 55-45 agreed to call witnesses. I still expect acquittal, of course - it's the way of the world of Washington politics - but we could always be surprised.

We don't know when the final vote will come, though I think it will be soon. I'd like to avoid the symbolism of it occurring on Monday (tying it to Presidents' Day), but it might be later today or tomorrow (or there may be other unexpected delays). In any case, I don't think it will be delayed another week, which means that it will be under this SLR discussed above.

Were it to be delayed until February 20, it would be under the Demi-SLR. The Demi reads much the same as the SLR above except tighter focus on Neptune. It still could be a chart just of an entertainer's bombast etc., but it seems more humiliating to me. If the verdict waited that long, the odds of a conviction increase. Neptune will be 0°28' from EP and 1°49' from Ascendant square natal Moon 0°13' from IC (also square his Sun in mundo but I haven't done the exact math).

By transits, we know that his world has been shaken. On Inauguration Day, he had 0°00' transits of Pluto opposite his Saturn, Neptune square his Uranus, and Saturn octile his Uranus. The Pluto and Neptune aspects are still well within orb (e.g., Pluto-Saturn is 44' today). Transiting Saturn also trines his Neptune within a few minutes today: Transiting trines rarely show events but they can certainly show states of mind, and his is morbid (the trine is exact tomorrow). Sun opposes his Mars on Monday, so we'll likely see him strike out at people mercilessly (something he won't do openly unless the trial is over).

But something hard lands on him today, too: Transiting Mars exactly crossed his Mar-A-Lago MC this morning and will square his local Asc Wednesday. He'll have a hard time holding back next week and is probably poised to strike out as soon as a vote comes in his favor. That expected exoneration likely will coincide with transiting Jupiter in orb of his Mar-A-Lago Westpoint.
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Re: Donald Trump

Post by SteveS » Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:46 am

Excellent observations.

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Re: Donald Trump

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:54 pm

February 13, 2021, at 3:51 PM, he was acquited 57 guilty to 43 not-guilty. It would have taken 2/3rds of the sitting senators would have to guilty. The Senate trial is adjourned as of 3:53 PM.
48 democrats, 7 republicans and 2 independents.

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Re: Donald Trump

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:46 am

Trump is still under investigation in Manhattan for various financial crimes involving his businesses there, for bank, insurance and tax fraud.
He's also being looked at in Georgia for violations of election law, for the phone calls to various GA state and county officials. Lindsey Graham is now being investigated for election violations in Georgia as well.
The New York attorney general is looking into whether Trump failed to pay New York state taxes.
The District of Columbia AG is looking into whether Trump's inaugural committee violated charities laws by paying hefty sums to Trump's hotels.
He's not a focus of the investigation into the insurrection on Jan 6th, but is certainly deeply involved in it, and was considered the leader of it by many of the insurrectionists.

Those are just (some of) the criminal charges. The civil suits are no longer being blocked by the Justice Department since he's out of office, so they're moving forward as well.

So that next SSR should offer a lot to observe, especially the timing of trials and verdicts. Solar Arcs, Lunars, SQs and PSSRs and transits should all have lots to say.

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Re: Donald Trump

Post by SteveS » Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:17 am

JSAD wrote:
So that next SSR should offer a lot to observe, especially the timing of trials and verdicts.
I agree and think this is when he will experience the worst of any possible verdicts.

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Re: Donald Trump

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:54 am

The Supreme Court declined to block the NY Grand Jury from getting Trump's tax returns, both personal and business today Feb 22, 2021. Announcement between 9:30 AM and 9:35 AM Eastern. On Twitter by 9:36 AM

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Re: Donald Trump

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:15 am

Jupiter Sets at Dawn wrote:
Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:54 am
The Supreme Court declined to block the NY Grand Jury from getting Trump's tax returns, both personal and business today Feb 22, 2021. Announcement between 9:30 AM and 9:35 AM Eastern. On Twitter by 9:36 AM
Uranus exactly rose at 9:30.

Transiting Mars was within 1° of Trump's MC: It was, therefore, definitely a blow to him. Transiting Saturn is semi-square his Moon. Reinforcing the impact of the news, transiting Mercury was opposite his Pluto within 0°03'.

He had a Demi-SLR yesterday. I had thought it would be embarrassing and emotionally hard on him: Neptune rises in Palm Beach square his Moon on IC.
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Re: Donald Trump

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Mon Feb 22, 2021 1:34 pm

Feb 22, 2021, also approximate 9:30 AM Eastern The Supreme Court dismissed the case for defamation brought against Trump by Stephanie Clifford aka Stormy Daniels.

They did not dismiss the cases against him brought by Summer Zervos and E. Jean Carroll.

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