Solar Storms of 1859 & 2012

Analyses of distinct mundane events, using the methods of Sidereal mundane astrology
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Jim Eshelman
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Solar Storms of 1859 & 2012

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:49 am

Two powerful solar storms with large, fast, coronal mass ejections have occurred in the last couple of centuries. One in 1859 hit Earth rather squarely, flattening what few electrical systems existed at the time (primarily telegraph lines). One in 2012 missed Earth. A quite valid concern raised by Steve this morning is that, if one of these hit Earth squarely today it would take down much of civilization. (I've long thought we shouldn't be quick to give up physical books in exchange for storing all the learning of the species digitally.)

Such events are called Carrington Events, after one of the first two scientists to report the 1859 storm. You can read about the two events here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012

For solar events, we would examine these heliocentrically. However, those charts aren't very helpful for looking forward. Both events happened near the peak of the 11-year sunspot cycle, and both had obvious heliocentric triggers, but these are triggers that happen frequently, e.g., the 1859 storm occurred under a partile Mars-Saturn conjunction heliocentrically.

I'm more interested, then, in the more selfish, less theoretical question of: Was there anything astrology discloses on the question of why Earth caught the bullet for one and dodged the bullet for the other?

What Could Show This?
Because the consequences affected the entire planet, we are limited to looking at tools without the use of angles - something that would give the same message everywhere at once. These boil down to:
(1) Something in the sky at the time, like planet sign transits or mutual transiting aspects.
(2) Solar ingress (especially Capsolar and Cansolar) Moon aspects and transits or progressions to those Moons.

When Did These Happen?
In 1959 the solar eruptions began August 28, but the impact on Earth was September 1-2. Two British amateur astronomers, Carrington and Hodgson, observed the solar eruptions shortly before noon (presumably London time).

In 2012 the CME occurred July 23.

Solar Storm of 1859
Considering mutual transit aspects, not a great deal occurred. The most interesting is that Sun was exactly square Uranus and trine Pluto. With the various auroras and limited electrical damage, the world did, indeed, experience some weird phenomena for a day or so. Mercury conjoined Venus, strange for negative impact on a communication system. None of the outer planet sign placements ring any special bells for me.

For the entire world, CAPSOLAR MOON conjoined Pluto 1°09'. This would account for some unprecedented weirdness. The Arisolar echoed something similar with Moon square Uranus 1°54'. The Cansolar brought nothing in this regard (nor did the Month or Week charts). Other than the brief curiosity-stirring transit of Mercury square CanQ Moon, there were no transiting or progressed aspects involving Capsolar or Cansolar Moons or their progressions.

LIBSOLAR MOON is interesting only because a planet hadn't moved on. The Libsolar also had a Moon-Pluto square, and transiting Pluto was 0°21' from square Libsolar Moon when the CME hit Earth. Additionally, progressed Libsolar Moon (LibQ Moon) was opposed by Saturn 0°07', a solid hit (in a minor chart) for what damage occurred.

So, everything indeed was Uranus and Pluto driven - at least weird, unusual, and unexpected - except for one clean negative aspect that was world-affecting. I'm sure there was no way to predict exactly what came down, but I'm satisfied that the general tone was shown ono a planet-affecting level. However, these appeared mostly in minor charts (certainly for final timing) where we were likely to miss them.

Solar Storm of 2012
When the 2012 CME occurred - missing Earth but providing great learning opportunities for Earth's scientists - we had more volatile aspects. The Uranus-Pluto square was partile and Mars had been moving through them (making a tight, impactful T-square in the Cansolar from a week earlier). These aspects would have serious impact on various locales over the following 12 months - SMA has numerous 2012-13 events where these planets are a big deal - but I don't know that we can attribute events around the CME to these.

The Capsolar and Cansolar give us nothing (looking only to Moon aspects). Same with the Arisolar. Only the long-past Libsolar had anything, with a 2° Moon-Pluto opposition that would be effective anywhere all three other ingresses were dormant.

Similarly, there were no transits to Capsolar or Cansolar Moon. However, progressions were another matter, and I don't particularly like the message. Just as in 1859 there was an exact Saturn transit: Transiting Saturn conjoined CapQ Moon 0°21' the d ay of the flare. If we credit this with damage in the 19th century, we should expect damage from it in the 21st.

So... I dunno. It's rare to have such a clear "this affects the entire world" event. I'm not sure there is as much difference between the "good' event and the "bad' event as I'd like to see.
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Re: Solar Storms of 1859 & 2012

Post by SteveS » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:33 am

Great Post Jim! I want/need to know one thing! Is there a reliable source that could notify me if a Carrington Event was occurring on the Sun (maybe a NASA source?) with a text message before the magnetic storms hit earth, or had a chance to hit earth. I doubt if information like this would be available to us, but if so, this would give us about a 17 hour heads-up which would be very valuable if you think about it.

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Re: Solar Storms of 1859 & 2012

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:47 am

I don't know. NASA is a good shot. Why not contact them? (I didn't see an obvious spot on the NASA.gov web site, but they have a lot of education and public service outreach programs. They're always having to prove their usefulness and relevance come budget time.)
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Off Topic: Getting alerts for Solar Flares

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:58 am

SteveS wrote:
Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:33 am
Great Post Jim! I want/need to know one thing! Is there a reliable source that could notify me if a Carrington Event was occurring on the Sun......
Steve please google "notification of solar flares" and check out the many many resources. Twitter, Apps that chime on your phone, NOAA's Space Weather service, several websites. You can warn yourself silly with a cacophony... :twisted:
till it all goes quiet....

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Re: Solar Storms of 1859 & 2012

Post by SteveS » Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:11 am

JSAD, do you know for sure if any of these sources will warn for only a 'Carrington Event'?

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Re: Solar Storms of 1859 & 2012

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:26 am

SteveS wrote:
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:11 am
JSAD, do you know for sure if any of these sources will warn for only a 'Carrington Event'?
I looked at half a dozen apps for the phone, and they all cover much more than that. Remember the economics: These services, like almost everythig on the web, support themselves by getting eyeballs on ads, so they prefer to find a way to gt you to look at something they send you several times a week if not daily.

For example, I found a popular app called Alert 5 that notifies of solar flares, geomagnetic storms, x-ray bursts, disease outbreaks, nuclear incidents, and near-earth objects (asteroids etc.) - OK so far, those are all big enough to at least be of interest - but it also alerts for stock market drops. Even if it only notifies at the end of the session once a day, that could easily pop up several times a week. (You can at least set the severity level - I just installed it and bumped the default severity from Moderate up to Strong, There are more severe thresholds of Severe and Extreme - you might want only Extreme notices.)

At "strong" alerts only, I get five Space Weather events in the last three days: minor geomagnetic activity 6 hours ago, a radio emission burst 8 hours ago, an electron flux solar flare alert that began yesterday and is extended, minor geomagnetic activity 2 days ago, and so on.
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Re: Solar Storms of 1859 & 2012

Post by SteveS » Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:33 am

Will look further into these apps Jim.
In February 2014, physicist Pete Riley of Predictive Science Inc. published a paper in Space Weather entitled "On the probability of occurrence of extreme space weather events." In it, he analyzed records of solar storms going back 50+ years. By extrapolating the frequency of ordinary storms to the extreme, he calculated the odds that a Carrington-class storm would hit Earth in the next ten years.
The answer: 12%.
"Initially, I was quite surprised that the odds were so high, but the statistics appear to be correct," says Riley. "It is a sobering figure."
If another Carrington Event was to hit earth, I give it higher probability it will occur within a Solar Ingress with a partile 0,90,180 Moon-Pluto. A Carrington Event hitting earth would absolutely stun/shock the people of this planet, and Moon-Pluto is the par-excellent combo for this type of emotional shock.
Interesting scientific reading here:

https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/s ... superstorm

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Re: Solar Storms of 1859 & 2012

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:06 am

SteveS wrote:
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:11 am
JSAD, do you know for sure if any of these sources will warn for only a 'Carrington Event'?
No, Steve. I'm not really interested in Carrington events. You'll need to download and review these to see if they do what you want yourself.

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