Page 2 of 5

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:07 am
by Jim Eshelman
Steve, can you remind me...? What were the final Vegas odds on the 2016 presidential election? (Am I remembering correctly that they had narrowed but still showed a significant advantage to Hillary, who did indeed win the popular vote?)

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:13 pm
by SteveS
Jim wrote and asked:
Steve, can you remind me...? What were the final Vegas odds on the 2016 presidential election? (Am I remembering correctly that they had narrowed but still showed a significant advantage to Hillary, who did indeed win the popular vote?)
I remember this fairly well. These odds may not be exact but are very close in 2016. 2 weeks before the 2016 Prez election, Hillary was running around - 400 to win. This means she was 4-1 to win! On the Day of the election I saw her winning odds jump to - 900, which was the highest winning odds I ever saw for Prez Candidate. This means on election day Hillary at one point was 9-1 to win election. Then about 8:00 PM on election night Vegas was still posting betting odds and by then the odds on Hillary winning drastically dropped very fast to even!!! In other words, Vegas saw before the news media---Trump was reversing the odds for winning. Then from 8:00 PM up to the media's official announcement Trump had won the Prez, I saw Trump's winning odds go from even up to - 800, 8-1 to win before the final announcement he had won. I know several major pro bettors bet heavy money on Trump winning when they saw the betting odds rapidity reversing from Hillary a huge - 900 favorite to even betting odds between 7:00-9:00 pm election night, CST.

Here is what I expect to see happen weeks before the 2020 election. I expect the right wing media to be telling their audience there is no way Trump can lose, just as the left wing media was telling their audience there was no way Hillary could lose the 2016 Prez election leading-up to the election. A-lot of this will depend on the Vegas odds leading up to the 2020 election after the Democratic Convention in July 2020. In other words, we have good chances of the seeing the reverse of what happened in 2016 where certain left-wing media sources were telling their audience there was no way Trump the Clown could beat Hillary for Prez, we have high chances for seeing certain right-wing media sources telling there is no way Trump will lose the 2020 election to the Clown on the left. It all depends on the betting odds going into last two weeks of 2020 election and the Dem Candidate-- because--do not doubt--the media sources follow closely Vegas betting odds, which sways heavily the psychologically how media sources report political news for Prez elections.

Why do I feel this way??? Because we see a potent Uranus-Pluto Paran in the 2020 Libsolar!!! I will have to check---but I believe the last time for a major sporting/betting contest I saw a Uranus-Pluto Paran (maybe mundo) was when the New York Jets played the Baltimore Colts in the 68-69 Super Bowl, and Vegas had the Colts an 18 point favorite and the sports media were saying there was no way Joe Namath, the Quarterback Clown for the Jets could win the Super Bowl. Joe Namath in very brash way promised his followers he would win the Super Bowl for em---kinda like Trump in his bragging brash manners promised his followers he would win Prez. Prominent Uranus-Pluto configurations are the # 1 astrological configurations for predicting major upsets in any type contest!!! Lets wait and see where the betting odds are 2 weeks before 2020 election.

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:23 am
by SteveS
As of today, the Reps are 2-1 favorites to hold control of the Senate after 2020 election:

https://markets.predictwise.com/politic ... ess-senate

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:53 am
by SteveS
DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR THE 2020 ELECTION
Wager Cutoff: 09/08/2019 23:00:00
Warren +200
Biden + 300
Harris +700
Sanders +800
Yang +800

Party to Win Prez:
Dems -125
Reps -115

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:34 am
by SteveS
New betting odds are out for the Dems Candidate. Andrew Yang has entered the picture with his campaign known for its popularity online, with The New York Times calling Yang "The Internet's Favorite Candidate".

Warren +200
Biden +250
Yang +750
Sanders +800
Harris +800

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:14 pm
by SteveS
New weekly betting odds for 2020 Election (Wager cutoff 9/23):

Party to win Prez:
Dem -125
Rep -115

2020 US Presidential Election:
Trump -125
Warren +400
Biden +600
Sanders +1500
Yang +1800
Harris +2000

Democratic Nominee:
Warren +200
Biden +250
Yang +800
Harris +800
Sanders +800

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:01 am
by SteveS
OK, I sincerely have a very important question to ask anyone about the 2020 Prez election. Presently, the top 5 Dem candidates according to Vegas odds makers to win 2020 Prez are:

Warren + 400
Biden +600
Sanders +1500
Yang +1800
Harris +2000

With all the other Dem candidates not on the above list, I seriously ask all who follow politics closely: Who not on the above list do you give a good chance to win Dem Prez? I ask this question because Vegas now has this 2020 Prez election set-up with their betting odds where if one out of the 5 above candidates won Prez---it would be impossible to lose money. Here is how with a betting example:

The betting odds for the Party to win Prez are:

Dem -125
Rep -115

The Dem Party is a slight favorite to win Prez. I could take 1,000 $ and bet the Rep-115 to win Prez. If the Dem won Prez I would lose 1,115 $. But I will take another 1000 $ and divide this 1000 $ into 5 separate betting units and bet on each of the 5 above Dem candidates with the following possible speculative bets:

280 $ for Warren +400 to win Prez—for a possible 1,120 $ win.
200 $ for Biden +600 to win Prez---for a possible 1,200 $ win.
75.00 $ for Sanders +1,500 to win Prez---for a possible 1,125 $ win.
200 $ for Yang +1,800 to win Prez—for a possible 3,600 $ win.
245 $ for Harris +2000 to win Prez---for a possible 4,900 $ win.

With the above bets, I have a total of 2,115 $ at risk and the worst outcome would be I win 5.00 $, but the best possible outcome I win 3,785 $.

Of course, If another Dem candidate besides the one's above wins Prez I lose 2,115 $. So, I sincerely ask again: Which Dem candidate running for Prez which is not on the above list do you guys/dolls thinks could win Prez. And, I sincerely ask how would you divide-up a 1,000 $ betting on the above 5 Dem candidates to win Prez?

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:29 am
by Jim Eshelman
SteveS wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:01 am
With all the other Dem candidates not on the above list, I seriously ask all who follow politics closely: Who not on the above list do you give a good chance to win Dem Prez?
The only name that isn't on that list and should be is Buttigieg. I don't think he'll get the Prez nom, but he's solidly in the running for VP.
Of course, If another Dem candidate besides the one's above wins Prez I lose 2,115 $. So, I sincerely ask again: Which Dem candidate running for Prez which is not on the above list do you guys/dolls thinks could win Prez. And, I sincerely ask how would you divide-up a 1,000 $ betting on the above 5 Dem candidates to win Prez?
Yang is least likely to last. (I like the guy - he's one of several smart people that still probably won't get the nom.)

At this point, politically speaking, Warren has the best shot. Bernie won't get it, Biden keeps staying on top but one wonders how long his momentum can last (but he's the only leading candidate with the chart to succeed Trump), Harris might re-energize, Buttigieg keeps impressing everybody with few taking seriously his chance for the nom (but he could) - which is why I think he's strong VP material.

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:49 am
by SteveS
Thanks Jim, I really appreciate your Dem opinions--it will help me make a more informed wagering decision.

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:32 pm
by Jim Eshelman
There is news today that Sanders' campaign may be caving faster than expected. It's premature to say that it is, but this is worth reading:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... ar-AAHrmkq

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:45 pm
by SteveS
Jim, what does Holly and Trent mean with the following statement:
...because I want to make sure the strongest candidate unmasks Biden...

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:37 pm
by Jim Eshelman
SteveS wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:45 pm
Jim, what does Holly and Trent mean with the following statement:
...because I want to make sure the strongest candidate unmasks Biden...
That quote is attribute to Rafael Shimunov, a former national creative director for WFP and 2016 Sanders volunteer. He apparently feels that there is something to unmask about Biden - more broadly, that he has to be unseated - and wants the strongest candidate to take on Trump.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sanders wins in New Hampshire, but I also think we shouldn't make much of it. He's from Vermont and that "neighbor" matter helped him a lot three years ago. He's historically as strong there as in his home state, more or less. That means that anything other than a very strong showing for him in NH suggests he's lost a lot of steam this time around.

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:47 pm
by Jupiter Sets at Dawn
Warren is also a NH "neighbor" and should also make a strong showing there. I'd expect Warren, Sanders, Biden, but the top two might switch.

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:02 pm
by SteveS
Jim wrote:
That means that anything other than a very strong showing for him in NH suggests he's lost a lot of steam this time around.
Got it, thanks Jim.

And Jupe, thanks for your input--i respect your feel for Dem politics.

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:17 pm
by Jupiter Sets at Dawn
You know I'm a Goldwater Republican, right?

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 3:40 pm
by SteveS
Jupe wrote/asked:
You know I'm a Goldwater Republican, right?
:) Hell no, I didn't know this! You know I am a true independent, right? But my favorite Presidents were Bill Clinton and JFK. :)

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:59 am
by SteveS
Latest Vegas changes:

For Prez; top 7:
Trump -125
Warren +300
Biden +500
Sanders +1300
Yang +1600
Harris +1800
Buttigieg +2500

For Dem Nominee; top 6:
Warren +150
Biden +200
Sanders +700
Harris +700
Yang +700
Buttigieg +1300

Party to win Prez, still the same, Dem slight favorite to win Prez.
Dem -125
Rep -115

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:17 am
by SteveS
New betting odds out for 2020 Prez--some interesting changes:

Top 7:
Trump Even
Warren +300
Biden +400
Sanders +1500
Buttigieg +2500
Yang +2500
Harris +5000

Going on the assumption Trump will be running against either Warren or Biden at their same above odds, there would be absolutely no way DC's Uranus/Pluto 2020 Libsolar Paran would be symbolizing a stunning/shocking upset in the 2020 election. Trump will have to be at least a 4-1 favorite to win the 2020 Prez, and he is now an 'Even' odds to win Prez.

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:43 am
by SteveS
Again, I can take the above posted betting odds in the last post on the 2020 Prez election and make bets and win/break even no matter the outcome, as long as one of the Dem Candidates running which is not in the above posted list does not win Prez.

1,000 $ on Trump to win at even money. If Trump loses the 2020 Prez, I lose 1,000 $
350 $ on Warren to win at +300. If Warren wins Prez, I win 1,050 $
250 $ on Biden to win at +400. If Biden wins Prez, I win 1,000 $
100 $ on Sanders to win at +1,500. If Sanders wins Prez, I win 1,500 $
100 $ on Buttigieg to win at +2500. If Buttigieg wins Prez, I win 2,500 $
100 $ on Yang to win at +2500. If Yang wins Prez, I win 2,500 $
100 $ on Harris to win at +5,000. If Harris wins Prez, I win 5,000 $

With the above bets, the worse that can happen--I break even. The best which could happen--I win 3,100 $. This type of betting is defensive betting--hoping one of the long shots candidates wins. With the above Vegas betting odds, Vegas is telling us there are very high %, either Warren or Biden will be the Dem Candidate.

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:55 am
by SteveS
Vegas odds for Dem Nominee in 2020; Top 6:
Warren +120
Biden +175
Sanders +800
Yang +1000
Buttigieg +1000
Harris +1500

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:02 am
by SteveS
This weeks new betting odds on election 2020. Vegas has taken the betting odds for the Dem Candidates running for their party's nominee off the betting board. I will post as soon as I see these new odds come back on the betting board.

The only betting odds Vegas is showing for election 2020--- is for which party will win Prez. Since the impeachment inquiry, the Dem Party has slightly increased their favored odds:

Dem -135
Rep -110

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Fri Oct 11, 2019 1:45 pm
by SteveS
US bookmakers are still not posting odds on the Dem Candidates, but here are the latest UK odds for US 2020 election.

Dem Candidates to win their candidacy:
Warren Even
Biden 4-1
Clinton 12-1 (even though she has not entered race)
Buttigieg 12-1
Sanders 12-1
Yang 16-1
Harris 16-1

For Prez:
Trump 5-4 favorite
Warren 3-1
Biden 8-1
Sanders 16-1

Party to win:
Dem: Even
Rep: Even

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:39 am
by SteveS
Latest US betting odds for 2020 election for Prez:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wash ... rens-surge

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Fri Oct 25, 2019 6:47 am
by SteveS
New Vegas odds on 2020 Prez:
Trump Even
Warren +175
Biden +500
Buttigieg +1000
Yang + 1200
Sanders +1500
Pence +2500

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 6:21 am
by SteveS
New Vegas Odds:

DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR THE 2020 ELECTION:
Warren +120
Biden +175
Sanders +800
Yang +1000
Buttigieg +1000
Harris +1500

2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - ODDS TO WIN:
Trump -110
Warren +200
Biden +500
Buttigieg +1000
Sanders +1500

PARTY TO WIN THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:
Dem -130
Rep -110

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Fri Nov 29, 2019 8:04 am
by SteveS
After an absent of betting odds for 3 weeks—new Prez odds posted today. Buttigieg is now one of the Dem's favorite tied with Biden.

2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - ODDS TO WIN
Trump -150
Biden +600
Buttigieg +600
Warren +800
Sanders +1400

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:56 am
by Jim Eshelman
Mayor Pete is taking over the over-65 demographic, especially in Iowa. (It's a perfect strategy for an Indiana mayor who is smart, well-mannered, served in the military, and and matter-of-factly embraces his religion to expect to do well in Iowa.) His latest big hit in the senior sector is his "Grey New Deal."

Last poll, he's 9% ahead of Biden in Iowa among the seniors - the most reliable voting demographic. Analysis says he not only speaks their language but reminds them of a favorite grandson that they're proud of (or a fantasy grandson they'd be proud of).

He's definitely got a shot in Iowa, a chance to beat Biden (but probably not neighbors Sanders or Warren) in NH, and he's doing surprisngly well in South Carolina - despite having not been able to pull any support from black voters.

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:48 am
by SteveS
Jim wrote:
Last poll, he's 9% ahead of Biden in Iowa among the seniors - the most reliable voting demographic. Analysis says he not only speaks their language but reminds them of a favorite grandson that they're proud of (or a fantasy grandson they'd be proud of).
Very interesting! Right now I think he has a good chance of becoming the next Prez given the malefic astrological symbolism with Trump for election time.

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:18 am
by SteveS
Latest Vegas odds for 2020 Prez election:
Trump -170
Biden +400
Sanders +550
Warren +1200
Buttigieg +2000
Bloomberg +2000

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:47 am
by Jim Eshelman
I'm not sure if it matters, but I noticed that the chart for the exact Saturn-Pluto conjunction (1/12/20, 11:59 AM EST) occurs with Saturn-Pluto exactly on MC through New Hampshire.

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:44 pm
by SteveS
Latest odds:
DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR THE 2020 ELECTION:
Biden +170
Sanders +225
Warren + 600
Buttigieg +1000
Bloomburg +1000
Yang +1200
Clinton +2500
2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - ODDS TO WIN:
Trump – 200
Biden +300
Sanders +400
Warren +1500
Bloomberg +1500
Buttigieg +2000
Yang +3000
Clinton +4000

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:37 am
by SteveS
Bloomberg is the only Den Candidate who has made a significant move to win Dem Candidate with the betting odds. Moved from +1000 to +600. Advertisement money buys a-lot of votes :) !

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:17 am
by SteveS
More odds movement than normal occurring with Dem Nominee:
Biden +150
Sanders +150
Warren +500
Bloomberg +500
Buttigieg +800

2020 Democratic nomination

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:57 am
by Jim Eshelman
Yesterday, Warren & Klobuchar got a dual endorsement from New York Times for the Democratic nomination. We have an AA time for Klobuchar and there is one floating around for Warren that has been useful in the past: Does it show this event?

I don't know where she was, so I'm only taking straight transits. (Please, everyone help watch where she is on June 22, her birthday.) For the 2 PM time I'm watching, Pluto (conjoined by Saturn) remains in orb of natal IC, though Saturn has departed. Transiting Neptune is 45° from her Jupiter (06'). The non-partile Uranus transit to her Jupiter would be fitting if it fell on, say, SLR or Demi-SLR angles for where she was yesterday (or where she was when the return set up). That's all. - Not very helpful.

Does anyone know where she was January 18? Late that night her Demi-SLR set up. It doesn't seem to have Sun-Uranus to her Jupiter angular anywhere in the USA.

Klobuchar had t Sun sqq. r Mercury. I suppose that is sufficient for an endorsement.

Iowa

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:01 am
by Jim Eshelman
The Iowa Caucuses are February 3. Using an estimated wrap-up time of 8:00 PM CST, and not knowing where anyone will be that night, here are transits to the candidates for the likely conclusion. They all depend, of course, on the accuracy of the birth data.

JOE BIDEN (A data). t Pl sqq. r Pl 13', t Ne ssq. r Mo 07', t Ur conj. r Mo 50', t Sa op. r Ju 49', t Sa sqq. r Sa 48', t Ju ssq. r Ve 18'. He gets a really big surprise! Given Saturn opposite his Jupiter, it probably is a discouraging surprise.

BERNIE SANDERS (C data). t Pl sq. r Ve 01', t Ne op. r Su 29', t Sa sq. r Ma 37', t Ju sqq. r Sa 18', t Ma op. r Ju 34', t Ma sqq. r Pl 21', t Me sq r Ur 30'. Also surprised. Bernie's big problem (and maybe his advantage) is that Neptune opposes his Sun and he doesn't know who he really is right now. These transits re-raise health concerns. The news is bad for him, but not entirely bad.

ELIZABETH WARREN (C data). t Ne ssq. r Ju 42', t Sa sqq. r Ma 21', t Ju sq. r Ne 57'. Saturn to Mars looks like unsuccessful competition, and the rest like idealism and unclarity. Not as bad as the others, but not winning.

PETE BUTTIGIEG (A data). t Pl sq. r Sa 52', t Ne ssq. r Ve 34', t Ur sq. r Ve 09', t Ju sq. r Ma 04'. This not only suggests successful competition but seems to show him really happy. (Jupiter finishes crossing his Ascendant soon before.)

AMY KLOBUCHAR (AA data). No transits.

New Hampshire

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:31 am
by Jim Eshelman
The New Hampshire primary is February 11. Using an estimated wrap-up time of 8:00 PM CST, and not knowing where anyone will be that night, here are transits to the candidates for the likely conclusion.

JOE BIDEN (A data). t Sa op. r Ju 04', t Sa sqq. r Sa 15', t Me sq. r Sa 14'. This is quite bad for him. I think that, after NH, he's out of the race unless he holds out for South Carolina where he expects to do very well. (He has no particular transits for the SC primary. Warren has quite excellent transits there if the birth time is correct, and Bernie at least loses Neptune to his Sun.)

BERNIE SANDERS (C data). t Pl sq. r Ve 22', t Ne op. r Su 45', t Ju sqq. r Ur 25'. I very much distrust this Neptune opposition to his Sun. Jupiter to Uranus is nice for the few days, and he is expected to do very well in NH (next to his home state), so he may do OK.

ELIZABETH WARREN (C data). t Ne ssq. r Ju 58', t Sa sqq. r Me 09', t Me sq. r Ma 45', t Me sq. r Me 48'. Warren is also from an adjacent state and should do well, but the transits suggest disappointment (not to mention irritability).

PETE BUTTIGIEG (A data). t Ne ssq. r Ve 18', t Ur sq. r Ve 20', t Ma conj. r Ne 37'. The last transit is ugly. There's no reason to think Pete will do particularly well in NH anyway, so it's hard to think what could give Ma-Ne-level feelings, and popularity does seem to be holding well. As Saturn gets closer to his Sun, this likely will fail; for now, NH gives some sort of very extreme emotional reaction, probably from a sense of attack.

AMY KLOBUCHAR (AA data). t Ju sqq. r Mo 50'. Only one transit, but it's a seriously good one. Expect her to outperform expectations.

Super Tuesday

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:00 pm
by Jim Eshelman
The big primary day is Super Tuesday, March 3. There is significant reason to think the nomination will be resolved by then, especially since this year it includes California, Texas, and 12 other states, including the home states of Warren, Sanders, and Klobuchar. Using an estimated wrap-up time of 8:00 PM PDT, and not knowing where anyone will be that night, here are transits to the candidates for the likely conclusion.

JOE BIDEN (A data). t Ve sq. r Pl 44', t Me sq. r Su 14'. Also, t Ne is nearing his IC and t Su crosses his IC for the 48 hours prior but has just left orb as these contests are over. If Biden is still in the race, he is definitely in the limelight for the day, possibly suggesting some surges (at least in particular areas) or possibly showing his stepping aside.

BERNIE SANDERS (C data). t Pl sq. r Ma 16', t Ma sqq. r Ur 35', t Su sqq. r Pl 51'. t Su also squared his Jupiter for the 48 hours before, but now is gone. Unclear. There's a fair bit happening, it's a significant day for him. Pluto to Mars continues to concern me about his health.

ELIZABETH WARREN (C data). t Pl sqq. r Ma 32', t Ju conj. r IC 54', t Ma sqq. r Sa 34'. If this birth time is correct, she's the big winner of the day; if not, then quite the opposite. In any case, notice Saturn is approaching her Jupiter, so she will weaken (for a time?) soon.

PETE BUTTIGIEG (A data). t Ne ssq. r Ve 47', t Sa conj. r Su 27', t Ve conj. r IC 23'. Saturn has caught up to exact conjunction with his Sun. Probably this means defeat; however, if it doesn't, then it means he is on a destiny path of great fundamental importance to his life and we shouldn't doubt him going forward. Venus crosses his IC and the next day, a the dust settles, opposes his culminating Jupiter. Despite exact Sa-Su, I can't rule him out: Rather, what happens this day will tell us what the universe is ruling in and out for him for the campaign.

AMY KLOBUCHAR (AA data). t Sa sqq. r Me 10', t Ma sqq. r Mo 10'. Not good. She does quite poorly.

MICHAEL BLOOMBERG (AA data). I assume Bloomberg will be in the primaries by this date, it seems his only real strategy. Saturn will have crossed his Dsc over the prior months, so he may have had the wind taken out of his sales. Nonetheless, if he's in, here are the transits: t Ve sq. r Ve 31', t Me sq. r Ur. 55'. This seems slight, but hardly against him.

Election Night transits

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:34 pm
by Jim Eshelman
For Election night, use 0:00 EST for November 4, 2020 (about an hour after the polls close on the West Coast).

BIDEN has t Uranus sq. r Pluto 13', t Saturn op. r Jupiter 10', t Saturn sqq. r Saturn 21', t Mercury sq. r Jupiter 19', t Mercury sqq. r 08'. I don't like that Mercury-Saturn square to natal Jupiter-Saturn at all, especially Saturn exactly opposite his Jupiter. This looks losing, although the Uranus-Pluto is quite intriguing.

SANDERS has t Pluto sq. r Venus 42', t Mars ssq. r Uranus 34', t Sun ssq. r Neptune 51'. None of this looks good for him: Humiliation and bad surprises.

BUTTIGIEG has t Pl sq. r Saturn 03' (breakthrough or breakdown?), t Uranus on r IC 35' (surprise!) op. r Jupiter 24' (really good surprise!), t Mars two or three days past op. r Mars (usual for last-week combat), t Sun ssq. r Neptune 53' (nail-biting). He could definitely win with this.

WARREN has t Pl on r IC 18', t Ju on r IC 54' (these both depend on the accuracy of a birth time of uncertain provenance which, however, has been working pretty well), t Sa sqq. r Mercury 03' (not winning, not being listened to), t Me on r EP (having something to say). If this birthtime is correct, hopefully she wasn't the candidate.

KLOBUCHAR has t Uranus op. r Neptune 38'. Again, her transits are so slight it seems she's not around. As it is, she has a reality upended a bit but little more.

BLOOMBERG Let's hope he's not the candidate since Saturn is on his Descendant, even though Venus is on his IC. Otherwise, nothing is happening.

TRUMP has t Neptune sq. r Uranus 36', t Uranus ssq. r Sun 25', t Saturn op. r Venus 23', t Mercury sq. r Venus 52' (sq. r Saturn 63' sep). Mostly, this looks bad for him, some being neutral, the Uranus being uncertain in outcome, and the Saturn seeming quite firm.

Re: 2020 Democratic nomination

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:44 pm
by Jupiter Sets at Dawn
Jim Eshelman wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:57 am
Does anyone know where she was January 18?
I think you mean Warren, but here's Klobuchar's schedual: (see below for Warren)
Saturday, January 18

ISEA Forum -- Senator Klobuchar speaks at 9:25 AM
Sheraton West Des Moines
1800 50th St. West Des Moines, IA 50266

Coralville Town Hall -- Doors open at 11:30 AM, program begins at 12:00 PM
Oakdale Ballroom, Coralville Marriott
300 E. 9th Street
Coralville, IA 52241 https://www.mobilize.us/iowaforamy/event/203042/

Clinton Town Hall -- Doors open at 3:15 PM, program begins at 3:45 PM
**DUE TO WEATHER -- NEW LOCATION**
Rastrelli's
The Avanti Room
238 Main Ave
Clinton, IA 52732 https://www.mobilize.us/iowaforamy/event/203038/

Davenport Town Hall -- Doors open at 6:30 PM, program begins at 7:00 PM
Mississippi Room, RiverCenter
136 E. 3rd Street
Davenport, IA 52801 https://www.mobilize.us/iowaforamy/event/203259/
from https://blog.4president.org/2020/2020/0 ... -2020.html

Warren's schedule:
Please note: This schedule is subject to change as additional events are confirmed and depending on the schedule for impeachment in the U.S. Senate.

Saturday, January 18th

2020 ISEA Legislative Conference

9:00 a.m. CT (program begins), 9:45 a.m. CT (Elizabeth’s estimated speaking time)

West Des Moines Sheraton
1800 50th Street
West Des Moines, Iowa 50266

New event: Planned Parenthood Action Fund Fireside Chat with Elizabeth Warren

5:00 p.m. CT (event begins)

A private residence in Des Moines

Creative Visions, Des Moines NAACP & Urban Dreams Block Party with Sen. Elizabeth Warren

6:30 p.m. CT (doors open), 7:00 p.m. CT (event begins)

Urban Dreams
601 Forest Ave
Des Moines, IA 50314

General public can RSVP here.

Please note: This schedule is subject to change as additional events are confirmed and depending on the schedule for impeachment in the U.S. Senate.
from https://blog.4president.org/2020/2020/0 ... -2020.html

Re: 2020 Democratic nomination

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:46 pm
by Jim Eshelman
Pete Buttigieg turns 39 years old January 19, 2021, with a new SSR that is at once powerful and devastating in Washington, DC. Should be he elected, I hope he can resist coming to town immediately.

His same SSR for South Bend has Venus rising within a degree, Jupiter square MC within a degree, but with Mars-Uranus (square the Jupiter) on IC and Saturn exactly on EP - not perfect by any means, but more outright positive than the chart for Washington.

In any case, his transits for inauguration (a really rough inauguration chart with a really rough Capsolar - no matter who gets elected) would be:

t Uranus conj. r IC 1°13'
t Saturn conj. r EP 0°42' [Saturn ssq. Neptune 0°00']
t Jupiter sq. r MC 0°35'
t Mars conj. r IC 1°18'
t Venus sq. r Mars 0°50'
t Mercury conj. r Mercury 0°57'
-- t Mercury ssq. r Uranus 0°14'
t Moon sq. r Sun 0°36'

Re: 2020 Democratic nomination

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:53 pm
by Jim Eshelman
Jupiter Sets at Dawn wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:44 pm
Jim Eshelman wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:57 am
Does anyone know where she was January 18?
I think you mean Warren, but here's Klobuchar's schedual:
Yes, I meant Warren for her Demi-SLR setup. Kolbuchar's SLR was January 7 and her Demi January 19. Looks like January 19 in the evening (around 8 PM CST) she was in Waukee, IA. This does give natal Venus on MC, her natal Sun-Pluto square strongly foreground, and some lesser stuff that all is consistent with her getting an endorsement.

It looks like Warren spent the whole of the 18th nd 19th in Des Moines and had her Demi-SLR there. For the 2 PM birthtime (provenance unclear, it has worked quite well for several events), it doesn't really show anything consistent with the endorsement. That does not give a further reason to be confident about the time.

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:18 am
by SteveS
New weekly odds just hit the board.

2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - ODDS TO WIN:

Trump -190
Sanders +400
Biden +500
Bloomberg +800
Warren +2500
Buttigieg +4000

DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR THE 2020 ELECTION:

Biden +150
Sanders +175
Bloomberg +500
Warren +1000
Buttigieg +1200

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Wed Jan 29, 2020 6:41 am
by SteveS
New odds changes:
For Prez:
Trump -160
Sanders +300
Bidden +600
Bloomberg +1000
Warren +3000
Buttigieg +3000

For Dem Nominee:
Sanders +130
Bidden +150
Bloomberg +400
Warren +1000
Buttigieg +1000

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:29 am
by SteveS
Here is a most interesting link documenting how the rapidly changing betting odds occurred on election night Nov 8 2016 between Clinton and Trump. On Election night Nov 3 2020, I will being doing my best to document the betting odds as they change.

https://www.oddsshark.com/entertainment ... 16-futures

Re: 2020 Democratic nomination

Posted: Tue Feb 04, 2020 2:30 pm
by Jim Eshelman
So far, with 63% of the Iowa caucus results released, this is exactly right: Buttigieg leads ("successful competition... really happy"), Sanders close behind ("surprised... news is bad for him, but not entirely bad"), Warren a little farther behind those two ("unsuccessful competition... not as bad as the others but bot winning"), and Biden a distant fourth ("a really big surprise... probably a discouraging surprise").

This may hold or it may change. Most of the vote in now is from urban areas, and Buttigieg is expected to do better in rural areas; so he'll probably widen his gap.

It's no surprise that the mayor of South Bend would do well in Iowa - he talks their language like a native. Next week is New Hampshire with two New England Senators among the top candidates.
Jim Eshelman wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:01 am
The Iowa Caucuses are February 3...

JOE BIDEN (A data). t Pl sqq. r Pl 13', t Ne ssq. r Mo 07', t Ur conj. r Mo 50', t Sa op. r Ju 49', t Sa sqq. r Sa 48', t Ju ssq. r Ve 18'. He gets a really big surprise! Given Saturn opposite his Jupiter, it probably is a discouraging surprise.

BERNIE SANDERS (C data). t Pl sq. r Ve 01', t Ne op. r Su 29', t Sa sq. r Ma 37', t Ju sqq. r Sa 18', t Ma op. r Ju 34', t Ma sqq. r Pl 21', t Me sq r Ur 30'. Also surprised. Bernie's big problem (and maybe his advantage) is that Neptune opposes his Sun and he doesn't know who he really is right now. These transits re-raise health concerns. The news is bad for him, but not entirely bad.

ELIZABETH WARREN (C data). t Ne ssq. r Ju 42', t Sa sqq. r Ma 21', t Ju sq. r Ne 57'. Saturn to Mars looks like unsuccessful competition, and the rest like idealism and unclarity. Not as bad as the others, but not winning.

PETE BUTTIGIEG (A data). t Pl sq. r Sa 52', t Ne ssq. r Ve 34', t Ur sq. r Ve 09', t Ju sq. r Ma 04'. This not only suggests successful competition but seems to show him really happy. (Jupiter finishes crossing his Ascendant soon before.)

AMY KLOBUCHAR (AA data). No transits.

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:48 am
by SteveS
After the confusion in Iowa, here are the new Feb 4th odds for Prez:
Trump -140
Sanders +350
Biden +600
Bloomberg +1000
Buttigieg +2000

The following link has more details about 2020 Prez odds including how the odds have changed the last 5 weeks up to Feb 4.
https://www.oddsshark.com/other/2020-us ... ds-futures

New Hampshire primary

Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2020 11:54 am
by Jim Eshelman
The Iowa Caucus fiasco was visible in hindsight from the mundane charts, but not in a way that I likely would have understood the portents if I had looked in advance. (There was a lot of Uranus, mostly connected with Mercury: cyber problems, phone line calamities, low level tech attacks.)

Nonetheless, perhaps it is worthwhile looking at the New Hampshire primary finish next week; say, for 9 PM February 11, centered on Concord.

For the year, Uranus squares MC (0°12') in the CAPSOLAR, while Moon squares Pluto (0°10') in mundo. This is really interesting because, by conventional thinking, New Hampshire's outcome should be easy to pick with one Senator from Vermont (who did very well there four years ago) and one Senator from Massachusetts sure to be at the top. However, the Capsolar suggests that New Hampshire's contribution for the year is to surprise us and through us for a loop. (Transiting Uranus remains in orb of square MC for the primary.)

The most recent non-dormant lunar ingress is the LIBSOLAR, with Jupiter 0°44' from EP. Not sure what to make of that, but it looks positive (despite Moon's square to Saturn-Pluto, shared by the world).

But things are likely to be really heated: CapQ Descendant conjoins transiting Mars. Raging figures and even fisticuffs may manifest (something rare for NH). Also, despite the double Uranus from the Capsolar, the CanQ places transiting Uranus on Midheaven. We are likely to be startled.

As mentioned above, going from the candidates' transits (not knowing where they will be), things go quite badly for Biden; Sanders has the uncertainty of that Neptune transit to his Sun but Jupiter transits Uranus so he probably will do quite well; Warren looks irritable and disappointed; Buttigieg has weird transits which show popularity sustained but very emotionally messy stuff that's hard to anticipate exactly; and Klobuchar should outperform expectations. (She may be the surprise of the evening.)

Buttigieg natal

Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:17 pm
by Jim Eshelman
Testing the birth time he personally gave out, his Demi-SLR for Des Moines - the exact day of the caucus - is quite positive. Uranus exactly sets square his Venus (which squares Ascendant). Natal Jupiter closely squares MC. Sun is moderately foreground. It's a winning chart and he won.

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:56 pm
by SteveS
New weekly wagering odds:
Prez:
Trump -200
Sanders +300
Bloomberg +700
Biden +1200
Buttigieg +1200

Dem Nominee:
Sanders +120
Bloomberg +250
Buttigieg +450
Biden +450
Warren +1500

Re: 2020 Prez Election

Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:03 pm
by Jim Eshelman
This one puzzles me a bit.

No puzzle: Bernie ranks highest at the moment.

No puzzle: Bloomberg looks strong. However, as astrologers we can observe that the U.S. has never elected an Aquarius luminary except Washington and Lincoln. They are archetypal presidents for epochal times, to be among the immortalized few quintessential presidents and unless a president is going to fall in that category we wont elect them. Thus Romney lost. Thus Hillary lost.

Puzzle: Buttigieg won the Iowa caucus (now decisively 14 delegates to Bernie's 12) and is tying Bernie in half the polls for New Hampshire (and closing in on the other polls). I'm surprised they don't set better odds based on that. (Maybe Vegas isn't watching 538 this year.)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/el ... hampshire/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bu ... pens-next/