2018 Midterm Election Betting Odds

Developing & testing the application of Sidereal Mundane Astrology to Picking Winners in sports competitions.
SteveS
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Re: 2018 Midterm Election Betting Odds

Post by SteveS » Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:08 pm

I hear you JSAD but don't understand politics like you understand. :)

Bettors are still pouring $ in on House majority for Dems, now favored by -500, Reps House majority +300 underdogs.

Reps Senate majority -400 favorite, Dems +600 underdog.

In the 2016 Prez Vegas kept the betting open till 10:00 PM. I don't know if Vegas will do same for Midterms but will keep updating every hour.

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Jim Eshelman
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Re: 2018 Midterm Election Betting Odds

Post by Jim Eshelman » Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:45 pm

Indiana polls just closed. The Senate race there will be very telling about how the evening probably will go. Hoping for results soon.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Election Betting Odds

Post by SteveS » Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:05 pm

Vegas betting closes out with final odds:
Dem House majority favorite -300
Rep House majority underdog +200

Dem Senate majority + 750 underdog
Rep Senate majority -600 favorite

Some very late heavy betting money came in on the Reps, usually a sign of smart money. Time will soon tell. :)

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Re: 2018 Midterm Election Betting Odds

Post by SteveS » Wed Nov 07, 2018 4:23 am

Kudos to Nate Silver, his forecasted winning % chances for the Dems nailed it. JSAD, I also think your analysis was dead-on, made a big difference with his failed 2016 forecasted winning % chances with dozens of races vs. 1 on 1 2016 Prez election. Very interesting contrast.

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Jupiter Sets at Dawn
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Re: 2018 Midterm Election Betting Odds

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:51 am

In the Nebraska 2nd race between Don Bacon and Kara Eastman, Eastman won the part of the district that includes most of the city of Omaha, but lost in the part of the district that worms it's way down to include the SAC Airforce Base for no good reason other than to pick up the Republican voters there. Don Bacon, formerly General Don Bacon of the Airforce, retained the seat.

This is gerrymandering. There were three anti-gerrymandering propositions on the ballots in three different states, and they all passed. Voters should be picking their elected officials. Elected officials should not be picking their voters.

Medicaid expansion was voted in here, but Ricketts retained the governorship and I expect he'll try something to gut it.

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Jim Eshelman
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Re: 2018 Midterm Election Betting Odds

Post by Jim Eshelman » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:09 am

BTW I came up with a simple anti-gerrymandering tactic 20 years ago that I thought Congress or a court might implement. The plan would be to require that no districting line cross a zip code boundary. That's all!

Zip code boundaries are organized by a different, independent part of the federal government. They tend to be compact and meaningful divisions, centered around a post office with good roads and other travel routes - ensuring (in a couple of ways) greater ease of getting to the polls.

Eventually, one party or the other could conceivably screw with this by screwing up zip code boundaries, but that would be difficult and slow. First, it would be a visible effort at screwing with districts, plus people (and businesses!) wouldn't tolerate having zip codes screwed with to much.
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Jupiter Sets at Dawn
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Re: 2018 Midterm Election Betting Odds

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:26 am

Have you sent this to Eric Holder? He can pass it along to courts who are mandating new district maps.
I don't think it would work here though. Our district maps already pretty much follow the zip codes. They just follow them in a line instead of a box.

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