Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

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Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Lance » Thu Aug 26, 2021 10:18 am

Disclaimer: This is a learner's experiment. I'm watching developing storms as they approach the coast in the Gulf of Mexico and trying to see how precise any attempts at prediction can be. I'm applying Jim's techniques (though probably inadequately and inaccurately) and learning as I go.

Method:
  • I'm using Solar Fire's "Solar Maps" function to generate maps for Solar and Lunar Ingresses. It yields a map with lines indicating the areas where astrological planets are angular (conjunctions and squares to angles).
  • I'm focusing on areas of the coast where the lines of angularity intersect with the coastline because the coastline is usually where the storm causes the most damage.
  • I'm focusing primarily on the active Lunar Ingress at the time the storm is predicted to make landfall, but I am also looking at the relevant Capsolar and Caplunar.
Last edited by Lance on Fri Aug 27, 2021 11:17 am, edited 5 times in total.

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jim Eshelman » Thu Aug 26, 2021 11:54 am

I suggest you pick lines In Mundo with no aspects selected (and all four angles selected), then click to Zodiacal, turn on Aspects, and have only squares selected.

This, of course, may be exactly what you're doing.
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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Lance » Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:16 pm

Ah, I see. Thanks for the suggestion. I wasn't doing exactly that. That will be my method from here on out.

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jim Eshelman » Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:19 pm

Once you're in the map, use the Lines button to pick the options.
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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Lance » Thu Aug 26, 2021 12:32 pm

Tropical Depression 9 (TD9) is currently in the Caribbean Sea with a rather clear track predicted to hit the Louisiana coastline just south of Lafayette sometime Sunday, August 29th.

Just looking at that particular coastal region:

Capsolar:

Pluto on the DSC right near Galveston
Sun on the DSC right near the Texas/Louisiana border.

Caplunar for August 19th:

Nothing nearby.

Arilunar for August 26th:

Sun square ASC - precisely on the predicted area of landfall as of about 4 days out.

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Lance » Thu Aug 26, 2021 4:10 pm

TD9 is now Tropical Storm Ida.

The “spaghetti model” storm-path prediction lines are in a tight pattern. My revered local meteorologist used the words “pretty much set in stone.”

The predicted landfall has now moved sightly eastward, south of Houma, LA.

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Fri Aug 27, 2021 6:08 pm

As I understand it, Hurricane Ida is following the same track as a Cat 4 that Hurricane Katrina did as a Cat 3, and is expected to make landfall exactly 16 years after Katrina did.

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Lance » Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:29 am

The most current intensity guidance models seem to indicate a probable Category 3 at landfall, but in the past few years, the trend has been for storms to develop stronger than the models predict. I hope that trend ceases.

New Orleans will get the “dirty” side with the storm surge and the worst rainfall. One forecast was for 20” of rainfall. The levees are always the serious issue there. It makes me sick for them.

There hasn’t been any mystery with this storm for astrology to help with. There has been a consensus in the tracking models for a while already. I’m still wondering how astrology might help with predicting the landfall of a storm whose track is less predictable due to less stable atmospheric conditions.

The angular Sun almost precisely at the point of eye-landfall seems to indicate help will be required from the governmental leadership. This seems so obvious to me that is painful to mention.

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jim Eshelman » Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:51 am

Lance wrote:
Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:29 am
The angular Sun almost precisely at the point of eye-landfall seems to indicate help will be required from the governmental leadership. This seems so obvious to me that is painful to mention.
I think that's exactly what it means. Fortunately, we have an executive branch that will mobilize FEMA correctly.

I searched my U.S. forecast for any hint of forecasting this and didn't find anything solid. (It is a national forecast, not a local one for the most part.) The one exception is that the current Caplunar has Mercury conjunct Mars strong. One meaning of this is destructive wind, etc. - which is what it meant through New England with the last storms. It also is an aspect extremely common for going to war and, I think, especially means military (or military-like) logistics, strategy, and mobilization. We've seen the need for this in Afghanistan this month, of course, but I often suspect it as a factor for things like mobilizing FEMA and emergency rescue efforts. One specific passage in the current forecast was,
Mercury-Mars also coincides with mobilization of tactical and logistical resources... I think it likely shows the same sort of military style tactical resources being used for other purposes.
That's as close as I got, and it does make me think you're right about the need for federal government intervention in New Orleans.
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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jim Eshelman » Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:22 am

Having watched astro-maps for ingresses every single month for years, I know it's very difficult to tell visually where things will hit worst. For example, measuring a 3° orb of an angle visually is hard. Hardest of all, though, is when there are NO lines: When the ingress is silent or dormant for an area. Then you have to look back at prior ingresses for the current impact. I suppose if we had a year's worth of ingress astro-maps on transparencies (the way we used to generate them at Astro Computing Services), we could lay them atop each other and see all the places major lines were crossing for all parts of a month or for a year, etc.

In this case, for New Orleans, the Cansolar is silent. The most recent voiced solar ingress, therefore, is the Arisolar, which has Saturn 1°02' from Descendant - square Uranus on the Zenith. The angular Saturn is simple and obvious: It's bad. Saturn-Uranus makes one think of surprise impact and, particularly, structural weakness. For NOLA, as you mentioned, that immediately brings the levees to mind. The Arisolar is New Orleans' "quarter" chart until the Libsolar near your birthday.

The Capsolar puts that 0°00' Sun-Jupiter across the horizon - we always hope for incredibly positive, benefic flourishing under such an aspect and we nearly always get torrential rain - with the "government relief" interpretation you gave it. But here's the hidden detail you may have missed since we don't currently have a way to see this on a map (and can only see it on a calculated chart if we go looking for it): The Mercury-Mars conjunction also hits New Orleans exactly! Observe Mercury and Mars azimuth in the Caplunar for New Orleans:

270°00' Vertex
270°09' Mercury
270°59' Mars

I wouldn't have caught this unless looking exactly at New Orleans. Being on the Vertex doesn't mean anything in these charts, but mundane aspects formed by planets exactly on this axis (to each other and to planets on the horizon and meridian) - what I named PVP aspects - are enormously important. The Mercury-Mars partile conjunction hits New Orleans as squarely as it hit New England.

It's frustrating to me when things I know are important are just too hard to see on a map. However, we do have the means to spot check a given area. I'm really glad you're doing this project: I've known for years that one can't really do this kind of forecasting without looking specifically at particular, narrow areas and I've long thought that a team of many people using the same techniques, each specializing in their own (or another) specific area is the best approach to effective forecasting. One has to concentrate on a locale and keep all the layers going in one's head - doing that for even the entire U.S. is too hard, so a team approach is great!
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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by SteveS » Sun Aug 29, 2021 12:48 am

Jim wrote:
Observe Mercury and Mars azimuth in the Caplunar for New Orleans:
270°00' Vertex
270°09' Mercury
270°59' Mars
WOW! Jim, your research in the past has shown at times Mercury-Mars symbolism has been a signature for ferocious/destructive winds associated with Hurricanes. I get the Mars symbolism for ferocious/destructive force of nature for Hurricanes, but I can’t wrap my mind around WHY Mercury for winds? Of all the planets in our Solar System is Mercury scientifically known for constant high winds on its surface? If so, then where science tells us Hurricanes/Tropical storms are mechanisms of Nature which moves heat off the oceans with strong(er) winds, then Mercury for high(er) winds makes symbolic sense. What is your take for the Mercury symbolism associated with Hurricanes?

According to this forecaster (link below), good possibility metro area of New Orleans gets sustained winds 130-140 miles per hr.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6ncDsMvLtQ

Added 3 hours later:
6:00 AM Ida forecast now very close to becoming a Cat 5, pressure now 935 Mb.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kJZoxvEoks
It could be a Mercury-Mars signature in any of the SMA charts for a projected hurricane hitting US Coasts simply is symbolizing very destructive (Mars) media news (Mercury) for metro areas on a coast.

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Lance » Sun Aug 29, 2021 9:25 am

Steve, there is the overwhelming travel-pressure of a mass evacuation that could be associated with the Mercury symbolism - just thinking out loud.

Personally, I associate Mercury-Mars with “Go! Go! Go! Go! Go!”

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jim Eshelman » Sun Aug 29, 2021 9:34 am

I don't want to derail Lance's thread, but perhaps a few of these answers will be in service to it.
SteveS wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 12:48 am
WOW! Jim, your research in the past has shown at times Mercury-Mars symbolism has been a signature for ferocious/destructive winds associated with Hurricanes. I get the Mars symbolism for ferocious/destructive force of nature for Hurricanes, but I can’t wrap my mind around WHY Mercury for winds?
I think there is a fundamental connection of Mercury to wind. This is one of the places where the planet's mythological symbolism serves us ( seems to match its astrological significance): The god Mercury, god of speed and flight, "swift as the wind," riding the air currents with those tiny wings on his boots. It's probably one of the earliest ideas I had about Mercury while watching day-to-day weather patterns back in Indiana: it always seemed to me that involving Mercury meant adding elements of air and the wind.

"Air" is probably the simpler connection to Mercury - but wit in motion is wind, and Mercury is certainly related to motion. In wider senses, I see the connection to wind as nearly the same as Mercury's connection to transportation, e.g., it's what propelled sailing ships around the world. In the earliest SMA studies, even before it was clear that Mercury had a wider connection to war, it was evident that Mercury was a key feature of from the air (Pearl Harbor, Hiroshima, 9/11 and more). Aside from the many hurricanes of which it is a key feature (too many to summarize here), there are other examples of wind disasters - events where wind was a significant part of the story - such as the Great Fire of London where winds spread and surged the blaze (and numerous wild fires), the Tacoma Narrows Bridge collapse (caused by excessive winds), etc.

Yes, I think Mercury is as basic to wind as Jupiter is to rain - right at the same scale. As far as I know, nothing about this appeared in the various Bradley-connected NYU studies even though they studied the startups of hurricanes - I suspect, though, that they didn't study Caplunars for that, only for the rain data.

I suppose I shouldn't apologize for using mythology to identify Mercury's connection to wind since that's the only place (the only place at all) that we find a connection of Jupiter to rain.
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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jim Eshelman » Sun Aug 29, 2021 9:37 am

Lance wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 9:25 am
Steve, there is the overwhelming travel-pressure of a mass evacuation that could be associated with the Mercury symbolism - just thinking out loud.

Personally, I associate Mercury-Mars with “Go! Go! Go! Go! Go!”
That's quite good, too.

I'm watching a real-time wind patterns feed right now and the eye is almost at the coast - with the winds having been clubbing the land for hours. Here's a current look (but whenever you look at it will look different than I see it, since it's real-time).
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 292,23.683
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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Lance » Sun Aug 29, 2021 9:45 am

No worries about derailing the thread. The main purpose is for me to explore this and learn. It’s all on topic to me.

Looks like the closest landmark to approximate the eye’s landfall is Grand Isle, LA. I don’t know how to get a more accurate latitude/longitude.

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jim Eshelman » Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:12 am

Starting to work on the aftermath analysis thread:
viewtopic.php?f=30&t=5169&p=39054#p39054
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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Lance » Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:51 am

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ida made landfall along the southeastern coast of Louisiana near Port Fourchon around 1155 AM CDT (1655 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar data indicate that Ida's maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 930 mb (27.46 in).

Within the past hour, sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) were reported at Lakefront Airport in New Orleans.

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana, recently reported a water level of 6.4 feet above mean

SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 90.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

www.hurricanes.gov

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by SteveS » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:16 am

Jim, correct me if I am wrong in my thinking here: Based on your mundane astrological knowledge for hurricanes, the one SMA chart that would have predicted with very high % for where a major hurricane would have hit a major coastal city, before hurricane season began, would have been New Orleans Aug Caplunar, with its PVP Mercury-Mars aspect?

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Aug 30, 2021 7:29 am

SteveS wrote:
Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:16 am
Jim, correct me if I am wrong in my thinking here: Based on your mundane astrological knowledge for hurricanes, the one SMA chart that would have predicted with very high % for where a major hurricane would have hit a major coastal city, before hurricane season began, would have been New Orleans Aug Caplunar, with its PVP Mercury-Mars aspect?
I don't think that's the strongest chart, but it's certainly one strong one. If we relied on this, it would have been hard to detect with current tools: You have to be looking at New Orleans in particular, studying all the charts for the area, and then have to look at extra data (an azimuth table). It would have been hard to detect.

BTW, I suspect Mikestar's new program eventually will solve some of this. I think he's going to add the Vertex-hinged mundane aspects like the one in this Caplunar. (He has an important one himself!) And I think he eventually will calculate ingresses (or at least returns) so we would have a way to run a year's ingresses and see the important data at a glance.

Looking in hindsight (since I did not predict this hurricane the way I did anticipate the New England storms), the Capsolar was OK but the single best chart was the Arisolar. The Arisolar completely nailed New Orleans. If I didn't somewhere day of the Arisolar that it put a serious hurricane risk on New Orleans for the duration of the chart, then I just didn't look. It' evident at a glance and, in setting up the chart fully, it's all there.

That could have started us looking at shorter periods. The Caplunar (a +1 or +2) had that Mercury-Mars if we looked deeply enough, then the Arilunar (+2) brought Mars foreground opposed by Neptune (but not as close to the angles: Sun on Zenith anchored the chart).

If I had latched onto New Orleans from the Arisolar (as I should have from one glance at the astro-map), the Bridge (+3) would have helped me narrow the time. The whole world had Pluto + Jupiter laid out for August 24 to September 6 (from various transits and progressions of Capsolar and Cansolar Moons) which, for the most part, I took as very positive; but if I were already looking at New Orleans, I would have also thought of freakish weather and economic disaster, and then would have quickly seen Mars' transit across the Cansolar IC for this week (August 24-30).

The Bridge remains the best tactic I know for narrowing the part of the year in which something shown in the solar ingresses will manifest.
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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by SteveS » Mon Aug 30, 2021 12:14 pm

I hear you Jim. I know this: You have definitely proven to me with your observations in this thread and your prior hurricane work, if I every see prominent Mercury-Mars aspects in the SMA charts during hurricane season, and the weather models are forecasting any possible storm moving into the Gulf, then I will first compute all the SMA charts for Gulf Shores where I have a good friend & client living. Lance should do the same with his living location near the Gulf. AFAIC, the mundane AZI reports in SF with NO Caplunar nailed the most dangerous area to be in for this hurricane.

And yes, I am excited with the work Mike is doing with his new program. I will wait for the bugs and various versions to be smooth out and then jump into it with much enthusiasm. Thanks Mike.

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Aug 30, 2021 12:25 pm

SteveS wrote:
Mon Aug 30, 2021 12:14 pm
And yes, I am excited with the work Mike is doing with his new program. I will wait for the bugs and various versions to be smooth out and then jump into it with much enthusiasm. Thanks Mike.
Steve, as a tease, here are the tables for your chart from Mike's program. Take a look at what you can see at a glance! (It may take a few glances to catch on the first time - it's worth it!) - You'll have to scroll below to see everything. Notice how your two closest mundane aspects (M) stick out in column 1 of the aspectarian.

Code: Select all

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pl Longitude   Lat   Speed    RA    Decl    Azi     Alt     PVL   Ground
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mo 15Sc22'23" 01S15 +12°16' 247°30' 23S06 286°57' -16°42'  17°24' + 26%  
Su 02Vi50'09" 00S00 + 0°59' 177°06' 01N15 319°51' +49°46' 298°36' - 13%  
Me 20Vi10'09" 00S19 + 1°32' 192°56' 05S53 308°23' +34°37' 318°38' - 83% B
Ve 07Vi26'45" 01N19 + 1°15' 181°52' 00N38 314°28' +46°35' 304°01' - 31%  
Ma 29Ge50'02" 00N49 + 0°36' 115°52' 22N09  79°02' +55°45' 236°14' - 98% B
Ju 29Li42'26" 00N44 + 0°10' 231°31' 18S00 290°57' - 1°24'   1°30' + 99% F
Sa 24Cn02'47" 00N49 + 0°07' 140°45' 16N12  33°10' +69°05' 258°11' + 33%  
Ur 02Ge06'20" 00N08 + 0°01'  85°46' 23N31  98°30' +31°36' 211°53' - 24%  
Ne 16Vi01'30" 01N29 + 0°02' 189°48' 02S37 308°42' +39°07' 313°49' - 66% B
Pl 20Cn13'48" 06N54 + 0°01' 138°52' 23N09  50°32' +73°43' 257°17' + 24%  
Er 12Pi28'60" 25S14 - 0°01'  16°20' 20S31  97°57' -49°04' 130°39' - 53% B
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Class 1 Aspects          Class 2 Aspects         Class 3 Aspects     
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mo oc Ma 00°32'  96%      Mo sx Me 04°48'  57%       Su oc Pl 02°24'  34%
Mo sx Ne 00°39'  99%      Mo tr Pl 04°51'  56%       Su op Er 09°39'   6%
Mo tr Er 02°53'  84%      Su co Ve 04°37'  77%       Me op Er 07°41'  39%
Su sq Ur 00°44'  99%      Su sx Ma 03°00'  83%       Ve co Ne 08°35'  25%
Me sx Pl 00°04' 100%      Su sx Ju 03°08'  81%       Ve oc Pl 02°13'  43%
Ve sq Ur 02°08'  91% M    Me sx Sa 03°53'  71%       Ju oc Er 02°13'  43%
Ma tr Ju 00°08' 100%      Me co Ne 04°09'  81%                           
Sa co Pl 00°54'  98% M    Ve oc Sa 01°36'  70%                           
                          Ve op Er 05°02'  73%                           
                          Ju sq Sa 05°40'  41%                           
                          Ju oc Ne 01°19'  79%                           
                          Ne sx Pl 04°12'  67%                           
                          Ne op Er 03°33'  86%                           
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by SteveS » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:09 pm

Jim wrote:
Steve, as a tease, here are the tables for your chart from Mike's program. Take a look at what you can see at a glance! (It may take a few glances to catch on the first time - it's worth it!) - You'll have to scroll below to see everything. Notice how your two closest mundane aspects (M) stick out in column 1 of the aspectarian.
That is so 8-). Great work Mike!!!!

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by SteveS » Mon Aug 30, 2021 2:12 pm

Just notice something that may be relative to another possible upcoming hurricane while doing some football analysis. On Oct 9, there is a partile cnj of Sun-Mercury-Mars. If we see another storm in the Caribbean with good potential entering the Gulf, we need to look at coastal areas (cities) to see if SMA charts features angular/mundane vertex Su-Me-Ma.

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Aug 30, 2021 2:38 pm

SteveS wrote:
Mon Aug 30, 2021 2:12 pm
Just notice something that may be relative to another possible upcoming hurricane while doing some football analysis. On Oct 9, there is a partile cnj of Sun-Mercury-Mars. If we see another storm in the Caribbean with good potential entering the Gulf, we need to look at coastal areas (cities) to see if SMA charts features angular/mundane vertex Su-Me-Ma.
Yeah, notice that date - it's in my SSR the next day.

Look at the October 7 Liblunar for, say, Port O'Connor, TX. Includes stationary Pluto 0°01' from Dsc, Mercury within wide but acceptable orb of Mars in mundo, plus very precise Sun-Mars-Pluto.

Fortunately, no ingresses occur exactly on October 9, so Mercury isn't as tightly woven.
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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by SteveS » Mon Aug 30, 2021 3:11 pm

Jim wrote:
Yeah, notice that date - it's in my SSR the next day.
I though about that. For sure--don't plan any birthday trips to the Gulf Coast. :)

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Aug 30, 2021 3:19 pm

Currently thinking Memphis - by way of Chicago instead of NOLA.
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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by SteveS » Mon Aug 30, 2021 5:12 pm

Jim wrote:
Currently thinking Memphis.
You & Marion be sure to go to Peabody Hotel for a glass of wine and the Ducks Walk, a tradition. In fact, find out if they have some fine wine and let me arrange to buy ya'll a bottle. I am still trying to figure out how to get my wife to Vegas on her birthday, I WILL figure it out. :)

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Aug 30, 2021 5:33 pm

Thank you :)
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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Lance » Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:09 am

Jim Eshelman wrote:
Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:22 am

In this case, for New Orleans, the Cansolar is silent. The most recent voiced solar ingress, therefore, is the Arisolar, which has Saturn 1°02' from Descendant - square Uranus on the Zenith. The angular Saturn is simple and obvious: It's bad. Saturn-Uranus makes one think of surprise impact and, particularly, structural weakness. For NOLA, as you mentioned, that immediately brings the levees to mind. The Arisolar is New Orleans' "quarter" chart until the Libsolar near your birthday.
Got it.
The Capsolar puts that 0°00' Sun-Jupiter across the horizon...
I can't find this in the Capsolar. Am I reading this correctly as an aspect?
Observe Mercury and Mars azimuth in the Caplunar for New Orleans:

270°00' Vertex
270°09' Mercury
270°59' Mars
I've located the Azimuth column in the Chart Analysis in Reports, but I can't find the Vertex. Could you help me find this?

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jim Eshelman » Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:47 am

Lance wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:09 am
The Capsolar puts that 0°00' Sun-Jupiter across the horizon...
I can't find this in the Capsolar. Am I reading this correctly as an aspect?
My typo. I meant Caplunar. Sorry.
Observe Mercury and Mars azimuth in the Caplunar for New Orleans:
270°00' Vertex
270°09' Mercury
270°59' Mars
I've located the Azimuth column in the Chart Analysis in Reports, but I can't find the Vertex. Could you help me find this?
If you add Vertex you'll see its azimuth, but this simpler than that: By definition, Vertex is always azimuth 270°00' and Antivertex 90°00. That is, they are on the prime vertical, and the PV runs due east-west through your location. (Due east is azimuth 90°, due west is azimuth 270°.)
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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by SteveS » Tue Aug 31, 2021 12:24 pm

Lance, Jim wrote:
If you add Vertex you'll see its azimuth, but this simpler than that: By definition, Vertex is always azimuth 270°00' and Antivertex 90°00.
Lance, Jim does not include the Vertex point with his Solarfire chart points, he does not need to because his astronomical mind always knows it is 270 degrees in the Azi column with the Reports page of Solarfire. In order for your eyes to see this under the Azi column on the Reports Page, you will have to add the Vx point to your chart points. Vx is the abbreviation Solarfire uses for the Vertex point with its list of chart points, and as Jim stated the Vx point will always be listed under the Azi column in the Reports section as 270 degrees. It took me days to understand how Jim's mind understood the Vx chart point as a true mundane point; whereas, most of the time when our eyes are looking at the Vx chart point with SF we are not seeing this chart point placed as a true mundane point. The Vx point with SF can only be understood properly in SF by using the Azi column in the Reports page of SF. It gets complicated at times but thank the stars we have Jim to sort these true astronomical things out for us with SF. I hope this helps.

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jim Eshelman » Tue Aug 31, 2021 12:39 pm

Since the Vertex longitude on a chart will usually not show a correct Vertex contact (it misses many of the and suggests erroneous ones), putting it on the chart gives me wrong information far more than it give right info. Meanwhile, I can glance at the azimuth column on the report and see anything within 3° of 90° or 270°.

For example, my Pluto and Vertex are 24°05' from opposition in longitude but 2°47' from opposition in azimuth. Pluto is really on my Antivertex mundanely. OTOH my Moon is 1°13' from Vertex in longitude [this doesn't really matter since Moon is angular anyway, but it's an example] but 5°50' away in azimuth - much too far to count.

Lance, your Neptune has Neptune at 91°29' azimuth, or 1°29' from Antivertex, even though Neptune and Av are 11° apart in longitude. Meanwhile, your Pluto is azimuth 87°12', or 2°48' from antivertex, even though they are over 100° separate in longitude. This also means you have a 4°17' Neptune-Pluto conjunction in azimuth, straddling Antivertex, though I think that orb is too large to worry about (though we might find it valuable that your Neptune/Pluto midpoint in azimuth - the way it would rightly measure against Vx/Av if such contacts are valid - is 0°40' from Av.
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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:03 am

Hey Lance-
Are you evacuating for Nicholas? Is it going to be close to you?

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Lance » Fri Sep 17, 2021 7:38 am

Jupiter Sets at Dawn wrote:
Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:03 am
Hey Lance-
Are you evacuating for Nicholas? Is it going to be close to you?
It passed just south of us. I made sure Mom and Dad were in a hotel that doesn’t flood. But as far as we were concerned, it just rained a little. Thanks for asking.

I haven’t looked at the charts yet, but one of my hypotheses - to look at where the eye lands because that’s usually where the most damage is - seems weak when you see these meandering potential rain-makers. This one got dried out by some upper-level winds; otherwise, it could have been really bad.

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Jupiter Sets at Dawn » Fri Sep 17, 2021 9:23 am

Glad you're ok. I agree about just looking at landfall. I've never agreed that was the money shot. I thought most of the damage would be to the east of the eye, where the winds are strongest. But I don't know. I'd have to look that stuff up.

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Re: Hurricane Watch, U.S. Gulf Coast, 2021

Post by Lance » Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:38 pm

Well, I was hoping for something that made more sense, almost mathematical, with the eye being kind of like a ball rolling to the lowest point of a curve or something. It’s just messier than that.

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