2018 Capsolar

Q&A and discussion on Sidereal Solar & Lunar Ingresses, and transits & quotidian progressions of solar ingress.
SteveS
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Re: 2018 Capsolar

Post by SteveS » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:27 am

What is a Bear Market
A bear market is a condition in which securities prices fall 20 percent or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment. Typically, bear markets are associated with declines in an overall market or index like the S&P 500, but individual securities or commodities can be considered to be in a bear market if they experience a decline of 20 percent or more over a sustained period of time - typically two months or more. The U.S. major market indexes fell into bear market territory on December 24th, 2018. The last bear market in the U.S. occurred between 2007 and 2009 during The Financial Crisis and lasted for roughly 17 months. The S&P 500 lost 50 percent of its value during that time.
And, since the low of Dec 24th, 2018, the market has been rallying. The recent low in the Dow in late Dec 2018 was app 21,750. If we see this low taken out on the weekly or monthly charts, it will be a solid confirmation of a new long term Bear Market.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp

SteveS
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Re: 2018 Capsolar

Post by SteveS » Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:56 am

Below is a link to a 1 year chart of the March Futures Contract of the Dow on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Back in my good ole days when the wine and money were flowing in a very benefic manner, I did a-lot of trading on the CBOT, mainly with a corporation’s money, I only made money on a commission basis if I made money for the corporation. Somehow I lucked- out and got connected with some people at the CBOT who damn sure knew how to make money trading. One of their tools was Technical Analysis, the other main tool was timing trades with a 'great' floor broker who damn sure knew how to read the floor when certain other floor brokers walked out on the floor representing large trading entices (smart money). The days where a small trader like myself could profit from this type situation are long gone, the main reason being back in my day the commissions on one contract of any futures contract was around 100 $, charged by the Brokerage Company you had your account. Now- a- days with on-line trading companies, the same commission charge runs 2-6 $ for a trade in one futures contract. In effect, what this has done is eliminate a good floor trader representing the Broker Company; therefore, eliminating the possibility for a small trader have contact with a good floor broker who knows how to read the floor timing perfect trades. Let me demonstrate an example of what I am explaining below with this link chart with first Technical analysis:

Placing a trade near old bottoms for short selling purposes is one of the keys for Technical analysis. Looking at the chart in the link below, we see 5 old bottoms around 24,000 in the March futures contract for the Dow which occurred in April, May, July, Nov, & Dec 2018. Technically, these 5 old bottoms are called a very strong Resistant Line! If I saw the Dow up significantly Monday morning nearing 24,000, I would contact my floor broker and tell him I was going to make technical trade by short selling future contract(s) in the March 2019 Contract of the Dow. I then would ask him: Do you consider this a safe trade by what you have been witnessing on the floor in the last several weeks? If he considered this a safe trade he may say something like this: Steve, all I have seen in the last several weeks is ‘smart money’ (floor brokers representing very large corporate accounts) selling rallies. This would tell me I had a very high % short trade in the Dow. I then would ask him to squawk if he saw something on the floor Monday that spooked him in not making a short trade in the Dow. Back in those good ole trading days, Brokerage Companies would have a ‘squawk box’ where certain small traders could go to their nearest Brokerage House and have access to a ‘squawk box’ being in contact with a floor broker. Again, those good ole days are long gone. Today the Dow futures trade overnight, a good floor broker has to get sleep.

Technically speaking, it is very common to see a market rally back only one time to its old bottoms after breaking-out to the downside of a long sideways trading formation as we see on this chart. So---if I saw the Dow overnight or during the Day trade near 24,000, I would call my broker representing the Brokerage Company and place a Short Trade in the March Dow futures, risking only 10% of the money in the account with Stop Order. If I initiated this short trade Monday and the market closed over 24,000 by close Friday on the weekly charts, I would close out probably at least 75% of my short trades, keeping 25% of my short trades provided I did not get stopped- out with the 10% risk trade loss. If this situation happens Sunday night or Monday, I will for fun ‘paper trade’ this ‘Short Sale,’ on the basis of a-lot of things I have posted about the Dow in this Thread Topic.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes ... tive-chart

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Re: 2018 Capsolar

Post by SteveS » Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:15 am

All my adult life I have heard the market axiom: It is normal to see at least one 20% correction in an ongoing Bull Market. If this correction exceeds 20% then the market is considered rolling over into a prolonged Bear Market. This 20% correction axiom has stood the test of historical statistical data and is well known by market players. The Bulls always buy 20% correction for at least a bounce in the market, which we have seen happened since the low on Dec 26 2018 at 21,712.

On Oct 3 2018 the Dow topped with an intraday high of 26,951, and on Dec 26 2018 the market made at least a temporary bottom with a intraday low of 21,712, representing a 19.4% correction. This 19.4% correction has been the largest correction in the Dow since this incredible Bull Market began on March 6 2009 at 6,470, after the ‘Great Recession’ of 2008.

So, we have seen the first 20% (19.4%) correction in the Bull Market since it began March 2009! Now the question remains. Is this Market going to roll over into a recognized Bear Market with a close on the weekly/monthly charts below 21,712? Our first clue if this crazy dive in the Dow prices in the last 3 months has only been a Bull Market correction, will first be when the Dow closes above 23,500 on the weekly charts, and then with confirmation of a close above 23,500 on the monthly charts.

But, one thing for sure: The Dow has made its first 20% correction since 2009 under this 2018 Capsolar with a tight/partile triple conjunction of Moon-Mercury-Saturn, as well with other major corrections in World Markets.

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Jim Eshelman
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Re: 2018 Capsolar

Post by Jim Eshelman » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:52 am

The 2018 Capsolar fades away in a few hours. Of all the years I've been doing this, I don't remember a Capsolar that spoke so vividly. Almost every phrase of the interpretation of it was exactly right. It has shown itself well for the U.S. and the rest of the world all year. In particular, the Moon-Mercury-Saturn aspect showed magnificently both where it was angular and where the Capsolar as a whole was dormant (meaning, the Moon aspects were the only live elements).

So long, Capsolar 2018. I can't say I'll miss the year you covered, though the chart itself was a wonder to behold.
Jim Eshelman
www.jeshelman.com

SteveS
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Re: 2018 Capsolar

Post by SteveS » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:08 am

Jim wrote:
So long, Capsolar 2018. I can't say I'll miss the year you covered, though the chart itself was a wonder to behold.
Indeed! And relative with certain possible Market potentials, I will be most interested if this 2018 Capsolar marked the year for a major long term Top in the Dow.

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Jim Eshelman
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Most pedestrian deaths

Post by Jim Eshelman » Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:15 am

Another postscript on the 2018 Capsolar: You may recall that with ts Moon-Mercury-Saturn triple conjunction, 2018 has a plethora of vehicular accidents of all type, most commonly in places where the triple conjunction was angular. Well, this morning we learned another dimension of that Mercury-Saturn (and, even more, Moon-Mercury-Saturn) impact.

2018 has the highest number of pedestrian deaths in 30 years, an estimated 6,277 of them. This has been a rising trend for the last decade, but nothing like 2018. The causes are also often mercurial: (1) More people are walking. (2) More driers are speeding, distracted, inebriated, or using cell phones for texting and other purposes. The increase in SUV sale also seems a part of this.

Notice that there are three distinct components connected to the three distinct aspects. While Mercury-Saturn is the most obvious theme, there is plenty of Moon-Saturn for the fatalities and human loss and impact and Moon-Mercury for most of the causes.
Jim Eshelman
www.jeshelman.com

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